Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.522350 1.582800 1.645464 1.715492 1.791835 1.872849 1.965731
2025-12-21 1.436317 1.515662 1.600491 1.698554 1.809611 1.932496 2.080213
2025-12-28 1.393301 1.487666 1.591089 1.714054 1.857938 2.023191 2.230796
2026-01-04 1.364678 1.471806 1.591763 1.737985 1.914262 2.123974 2.399133
2026-01-11 1.325189 1.440195 1.571121 1.733871 1.934853 2.181059 2.516454
2026-01-18 1.294756 1.416817 1.557869 1.736402 1.961928 2.246133 2.648125
2026-01-25 1.251547 1.376037 1.521397 1.707738 1.946986 2.254811 2.702772
2026-02-01 1.222402 1.350579 1.501867 1.698420 1.955196 2.293131 2.800814
2026-02-08 1.194644 1.325519 1.481452 1.686445 1.958444 2.323889 2.889579
2026-02-15 1.168778 1.301704 1.461413 1.673615 1.959203 2.350345 2.973354
2026-02-22 1.152781 1.289309 1.454901 1.677597 1.982259 2.409056 3.112762
2026-03-01 1.122669 1.258438 1.423939 1.647964 1.957181 2.395791 3.133244
2026-03-08 1.101814 1.239057 1.407579 1.637872 1.959943 2.425392 3.231740
2026-03-15 1.080232 1.218108 1.388458 1.623148 1.955117 2.442803 3.310762
2026-03-22 1.072394 1.214208 1.391056 1.637713 1.992738 2.527824 3.522447
2026-03-29 1.068124 1.214599 1.399070 1.659788 2.042271 2.635526 3.795751
2026-04-05 1.053881 1.201719 1.389093 1.656202 2.053018 2.680521 3.952169
2026-04-12 1.042741 1.192514 1.383629 1.658607 2.072739 2.741809 4.154129
2026-04-19 1.021247 1.169337 1.358832 1.632524 2.047072 2.722902 4.174922
2026-04-26 1.007339 1.155774 1.346610 1.624051 2.048426 2.751271 4.309621
2026-05-03 0.993138 1.141509 1.333055 1.613132 2.045278 2.771184 4.428002
2026-05-10 0.979236 1.127351 1.319288 1.601415 2.040226 2.787113 4.539757
2026-05-17 0.971506 1.121147 1.316152 1.605064 2.059915 2.849965 4.787331